Anthropic published an interactive model today showing US GDP could land anywhere between $34.1 trillion and $44.4 trillion by 2030 depending on how deeply AI reshapes knowledge work, with its most extreme scenario cutting labor's share of the economy from about 60 cents to 45 cents per dollar.
Read the full story: Anthropic Maps Three AI Economy Scenarios, GDP to $44.4T by 2030 →
Transcript
Anthropic just published a model of three different futures for the US economy, and the gap between them is ten trillion dollars. In the modest scenario, AI matters about as much as the internet did. GDP ticks up to thirty four trillion. In the substantial scenario, AI does about half of all knowledge work, and GDP jumps to thirty six point three trillion, growing twice as fast as normal.
But in the extreme scenario, AI becomes recursively self improving and outproduces humans at most knowledge work. GDP hits forty four point four trillion. Here's the part almost nobody is talking about. In that extreme case, labor's share of every dollar of output falls from sixty cents to forty five cents. Fourteen percent of workers lose their jobs to AI, and fewer than half find new ones.
Anthropic surveyed ten thousand Americans, and the median person already expects something close to the substantial scenario. This isn't a forecast. It's a company that sells AI, showing you what its own product could do to your paycheck.